PREVIOUS THOUGHTS FOR THE DAY July 6 2015 to July 12 2015 Monday July 6 Coin Toss If we toss a coin, there's an equal chance of getting heads or tails. If we throw two in a row, will two heads (or tails) suggest indisputable certainty? Nobody would ever say that (unless the coin happened to agree with what they wanted.) When we get one head, one tail, we often try for the best of three - but that can be deceptive too. A coin may have to be tossed more than 100 times to see the true rate of 50/50 emerge. So astrology has to do better than that. This week, we'll discuss how much better. Tuesday July 7 A Point About a Point Gamblers and statisticians (hopefully) agree about one point. If there's a consistent 50/50 chance of something happening or not happening, there's no great predictive rule. The majority of us are (hopefully) neither gamblers nor statisticians. We would like to feel that any principle we are trusting is 100 per cent reliable. But we may be willing to let ourselves feel comfortable about 99 per cent, even 90 per cent. Yet just as, in business, the difference between 49 and 51 per cent ownership is a critical distinction, the ability to predict any phenomenon with 51 per cent accuracy is enough to qualify as valuable. More tomorrow. Wednesday July 8 51 Percent Proof Recently, here in this space, I've been getting perilously close to being boring. I've been rattling on about statistics and probabilities when, many might feel, I ought to have been talking about the Moon and the planets. I've been risking the resentment of my readers because I want to make a very important point about accuracy. It is no more realistic to expect an astrologer (or indeed, a psychic or clairvoyant) to be right each time, every time than to expect a doctor or lawyer to be entirely infallible. Even a verifiable success rate of 51 per cent is proof of validity. Thursday July 9 Space O'Clock Hi Jonathan, You seem to be struggling to explain astrology. Here is a simple model for the readers. A clock is the hands of time in the space of the clock face. This parallels our time on earth. Now imagine a clock with multiple faces, each rotating and with many, many hands. The faces and hands, just as with clocks, are deeply symbolic and require interpretation. Woody Dear Woody, Was I struggling? I was just keen to present different ideas about how astrology might work. The explanation you have so kindly given is, indeed, one of those possible ways. Friday July 10 Testing, Testing Soon, readers will be relieved to hear, I'll end my recent discussion about statistics. I just wanted to explain how, with any trend or process, a success rate better than 50/50 means something big. Even if it is only 51/49, it is important if it is consistent. Not that I'm saying astrologers can consider themselves amazing if they only get it right slightly more often than not. We can do much better than that, if only science can find a fair way to test us. Oops, now I can feel another long series of explanations coming on... Saturday July 11 Your Week Ahead This week's most notable developments, are the quick-fire visit of Mercury to the sign of Cancer and the opposition of Mars and Pluto. The latter suggests a showdown. Whilst it has specific implications for some signs, it generally suggests clashes or confrontations for us all. Whenever these hove into view, we should step aside. And if we get caught up in them, we should remember what the so-called experts say about how Pluto is too small to be a proper planet. Perhaps then, the disputes that it signifies will be too small to be worth our concern! Sunday July 12 Your Week Ahead - Love Focus Remember, your Love Forecast today does not just cover romance. A love forecast may also have something to say about your family life, your closest friendships and even some of your most important working relationships. Back to Index   Click here for Jonathan Cainer's Daily Zodiac Forecasts